Are Smartphones on Their Way Out?
Could the smartphone—our constant companion for the last decade and a half—soon become obsolete? According to Jon Callaghan, co-founder of True Ventures, the answer is a resounding “yes.” In a candid year-end interview, Callaghan predicts we’ll stop using smartphones as we know them within five years, and possibly abandon them entirely by 2030. For a venture capitalist behind breakout hits like Fitbit, Ring, and Peloton, that’s not idle speculation—it’s a guiding investment thesis. As AI, wearables, and ambient computing mature, the era of tapping a glass rectangle may be winding down faster than most realize.
The Quiet Powerhouse Betting Against the Phone
True Ventures, the San Francisco–based firm with $4 billion under management, has long flown under the radar despite an enviable track record. While rival VCs chase clout on social media, True has doubled down on deep founder relationships—especially with “repeat entrepreneurs” who return after early wins. That quiet approach is paying off: the firm now counts 63 profitable exits and seven IPOs across its 300-company portfolio. In Q4 2025 alone, three of its four exits came from founders who’d worked with True before. This loyalty isn’t accidental—it’s strategic. And it’s giving True a front-row seat to the next computing revolution.
Beyond the Screen: The Rise of Ambient Interaction
So if not smartphones, then what? Callaghan points to a future where computing is no longer something we “do”—it’s something that simply is. Think seamless voice interfaces embedded in homes, AI-powered wearables that anticipate needs before we voice them, and spatial computing environments that blur physical and digital worlds. The shift isn’t just about hardware—it’s about context. “We’re moving from carrying a computer to living inside one,” Callaghan explains. This ambient, invisible layer of intelligence could render today’s app-centric smartphone model quaint by comparison.
Why Now? The Convergence That Changes Everything
Several technological inflection points are aligning faster than expected. Advances in on-device AI mean devices can process complex tasks without cloud reliance—critical for privacy and responsiveness. Battery tech, long a bottleneck, is finally seeing breakthroughs in solid-state and graphene-based cells. Meanwhile, neural interface research is transitioning from labs to real-world prototypes. Add to that the growing frustration with screen fatigue and attention fragmentation, and the appetite for alternatives is undeniable. Consumers may not know they want a post-smartphone world yet—but the infrastructure for it is already being built.
Enterprise Leads the Way (Again)
Interestingly, the enterprise sector may pave the path for consumers. Companies like Microsoft and Magic Leap are already deploying spatial computing tools in logistics, field service, and remote collaboration. These B2B use cases refine the tech, drive down costs, and normalize non-phone interfaces. “Enterprise adoption de-risks the consumer leap,” notes Callaghan. Once workers grow accustomed to gesture-based dashboards or voice-controlled workflows, they’ll resist returning to a 6-inch touchscreen at home. The pattern mirrors how laptops and cloud services trickled down from corporate IT departments to everyday life.
True Ventures’ Bets Reveal the Roadmap
True isn’t just predicting this shift—it’s funding it. While the firm keeps its latest investments close to the vest, clues abound in its recent activity. Investments in biometric wearables, edge-AI chips, and conversational AI platforms suggest a clear focus: decentralized, intuitive, always-on computing. Notably, none of these startups center around a “new phone.” Instead, they’re building sensor networks, ambient agents, and context-aware systems designed to operate without demanding our visual attention. That’s the real differentiator: technology that serves us without hijacking our focus.
The Emotional Toll of the Smartphone Era
There’s also a human reason this transition feels overdue. After 15 years of smartphone dominance, digital exhaustion is real. Studies link constant notifications to rising anxiety, fractured attention spans, and even declining empathy. A post-smartphone world promises relief—not through digital detoxes, but by redesigning interaction itself. Imagine a wearable that vibrates gently when your calendar clears, or a home system that dims lights and plays calming sounds when it senses stress. The goal isn’t fewer screens—it’s no screens where they’re unnecessary.
Skeptics Say: “But What About Apps?”
Critics rightly ask: if we ditch smartphones, where do the millions of apps go? The answer lies in modular intelligence. Instead of bundling everything into one device, future apps will be distributed across environments—your car, your office, your wristband—each activated contextually. AI agents will fetch information, complete tasks, and even negotiate on your behalf, without you opening an app. In this model, the phone isn’t replaced by a single gadget; it’s dissolved into the fabric of daily life. The “app store” becomes obsolete when every object is smart and interconnected.
Consumers May Not Notice—Until It’s Too Late
Ironically, most people won’t see the smartphone’s decline coming until it’s already happened. Like the transition from desktops to mobile, the shift will feel gradual, then sudden. Early adopters will embrace smart rings or neural bands; mainstream users will follow once these tools solve real frustrations—like missing a call because their hands were full. By 2030, pulling out a phone to check a message might feel as archaic as unfolding a paper map in a Tesla.
Apple, Google, and Samsung: Adapting or Falling Behind?
Even tech giants are hedging. Apple’s Vision Pro, Google’s AI-integrated wearables, and Samsung’s Galaxy Ring all hint at a “phone-plus” strategy. But Callaghan argues that true disruption requires abandoning the phone-centric mindset entirely. “If you’re still thinking in terms of ‘companion devices,’ you’ve already lost,” he says. The winners will be those who design for a world where computing is ambient, invisible, and anticipatory—not tethered to a slab in your pocket.
The End of an Era—And the Start of Something Human
The smartphone gave us unprecedented connectivity, but at a cost: constant distraction, fractured presence, and a world viewed through glass. What comes next could restore balance. By moving intelligence off screens and into our environments, the next era of computing might finally put humans—not devices—at the center. As Callaghan puts it, “We’re not losing our phones. We’re gaining our attention back.” For a world weary of digital overload, that’s not just innovation—it’s liberation.
