Selling coffee beans to Starbucks’ – how the AI boom could leave AI’s biggest companies behind
The phrase “Selling coffee beans to Starbucks’ – how the AI boom could leave AI’s biggest companies behind” captures a surprising shift in the industry. For years, tech giants like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft have dominated the AI space with massive foundation models. But now, smaller startups are finding opportunities by building smarter, faster, and more user-friendly applications on top of those same models.
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This dynamic raises a big question: do foundation models really matter as much as they once did? Or are we entering a stage where what wins is not raw model power, but creative implementation and targeted solutions?
From Foundation Models to Customization
AI startups once dismissed as “GPT wrappers” are suddenly looking like real contenders. Instead of building giant models from scratch, they are customizing existing AI for specific industries—healthcare, software development, creative tools, and more.
Think of it like coffee. Starbucks may own the café experience, but if everyone can buy beans and roast them differently, new businesses can thrive. In the same way, startups are taking foundation models and “brewing” new products that feel unique and valuable to end users.
Why Scaling Up Isn’t Enough Anymore
For years, the secret weapon of AI’s biggest companies was scale. Whoever could train the largest models on the biggest datasets had the clear advantage. But the returns from scaling are slowing down.
Now, the real breakthroughs are happening in fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, and user interface design. Startups don’t need billions in compute power; they just need clever ways to make AI more useful for people and businesses.
Boxworks and the Rise of User-Facing AI
At last week’s Boxworks conference, the spotlight wasn’t on foundation models. Instead, it was on the user-facing software built on top of them. The message was clear: the future of AI isn’t only about bigger models—it’s about making AI practical, accessible, and customizable.
This is where startups shine. They move faster, take risks, and design experiences that giant companies can’t always deliver.
A Leveling of the Playing Field
Anthropic’s Claude Code is a great example. While it benefits from a strong foundation model, its success comes from how it has been trained and packaged for developers. That’s a signal that the biggest labs no longer hold an unshakable advantage.
Instead of chasing some ultimate all-powerful AGI, the AI boom is producing a wave of niche solutions. Whether it’s better coding assistants, enterprise tools, or creative generators, the winners may not be the ones with the biggest models—but the ones who use them best.
What This Means for Big Tech
If foundation models become interchangeable commodities, then being the Starbucks of AI may not guarantee long-term dominance. Just as a café chain can’t control how people buy and brew coffee beans, AI giants may find themselves supplying raw models while startups capture the real value.
This shift doesn’t mean the giants are out of the game. But it does mean they’ll have to compete in ways they didn’t expect—on usability, customer trust, and creative applications, not just compute power.
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